Three-Way Race Between Quist, McCarthy and Curtis Emerges After Second Ballot

HELENA, Mont. – Montana Democrats were not able to pick their congressional nominee on the second ballot. The results:

  • 160 votes were cast.
  • Rob Quist:  62
  • Rep. Kelly McCarthy: 42
  • Gary Stein: 1
  • Rep. Amanda Curtis: 47
  • Dan West: 8

Dan West dropped out of the race after the second ballot. Gary Stein was eliminated as the lowest vote-getter on the second ballot.  Voting on the third ballot is underway, with Rob Quist, Kelly McCarthy and Amanda Curtis as the remaining candidates.

No Winner on the Montana Democrats’ First Ballot

HELENA, Mont. — None of the eight candidates running for the Montana Democratic Party’s nomination for the upcoming state congressional election came away with a 50 percent plus one majority after the first ballot. The results announced by Montana Democratic Party Chairman Jim Larson:

  • 158 votes were cast.
  • 1 vote was spoiled and did not count.
  • Rob Quist:  57
  • John Meyer: 0
  • Rep. Kelly McCarthy: 38
  • Gary Stein: 6
  • Tom Weida: 0
  • Link Neimark: 0
  • Rep. Amanda Curtis: 39
  • Dan West: 17

There is currently a ten-minute break before the second ballot, which will consist of Quist, McCarthy, Stein, Curtis, and West.  Under the rules, Meyer, Weida and Neimark are eliminated.

2017 Special Election Calendar

Having spoken to and emailed several party officials, here is what the special elections schedule looks like over the next three months to fill the five vacant seats in the House of Representatives:

March 5-6 – Party nominating conventions for Democratic and Republican candidates for Montana AL CD.
April 4 – California 34th CD primary election
April 11 – Kansas 4th CD general election: Ron Estes (R) v. Jim Thompson (D)
April 18 – Georgia 6th CD general election
May 2 – South Carolina 5th CD primary
May 16 – South Carolina 5th CD primary runoff election (if necessary)
May 20 – Montana AL CD general election: Greg Gianforte (R) v. Rob Quist (D)
June 6 – California 34th CD general election (the top two candidates from primary, if no candidate gets 50 percent of the votes +1 on April 4)
June 20 – Georgia 6th CD runoff election (only if no candidate gets 50 percent of the votes +1 on April 18)
June 20 – South Carolina 5th CD general election

Tim Ryan Won’t Run for Ohio Governor in 2018

After months of flirting with the idea, Rep. Tim Ryan told Ohio Democrats he would not be entering the race to succeed term-limited Governor John Kasich:

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Tim Ryan, whose national profile has risen in recent months, announced Tuesday that he will not be a candidate for Ohio governor in 2018.

The eight-term congressman wrestled with a run for months, weighing the risk of jumping into a potentially crowded and unpredictable primary against sticking with a safe House seat.

“Constituents in my district are at the forefront of an economic transformation that has hollowed out our nation’s middle class,” Ryan said in a statement emailed after word about his decision first trickled out to cleveland.com. “As I’ve considered how best to address these challenges, the more I’ve appreciated how much they are national issues that require national solutions.

“That is why, while I have been truly humbled by the encouragement I’ve received to run for Governor of Ohio, I believe the best way to serve my community, my state and my country is to remain in the United States Congress.

Ryan’s decision was made easier by the plum committee assignments he maintained despite his unsuccessful bid to unseat Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi last fall. In his Tuesday statement, he asserted that spots on the Appropriations Committee and Defense Subcommittee will help him “fight back against wrong-headed policies and champion the kinds of solutions that would have a real impact for American families.”

With Ryan’s decision to not enter the race, the Democratic field is wide open. According to cleveland.com’s Henry Gomez, the potential field of candidates includes:

  • Ohio Senate minority leader Joe Schiavoni
  • Former Rep. Betty Sutton
  • Former Rep. Connie Pillich
  • Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley
  • Former Youngstown Mayor Jay Williams
  • Former Sen. Nina Turner
  • Former Rep. Dennis Kucinich
  • CFPB Director Richard Cordray

While the race for an open governor’s mansion in Columbus is ongoing, at the same time Sen. Sherrod Brown will be running for reelection in the same cycle. Depending on the political climate in 18 months from now, that could be a boost for Democrats up and down the Ohio ballot.

Montana Democrats Preparing to Pick Their House of Representatives Nominee

Montana Democrats are tentatively set to pick their nominee to compete for the state’s at-large congressional seat being vacated by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who is expected to be confirmed as Secretary of the Interior by the Senate. The state party is planning to hold its nominating convention in Helena this coming weekend.

According to a Montana party official, the voters who will be picking the candidate are divided into four different groups:

  • The 35 county Central Committees, each of which gets four delegates.
  • Elected officials and party leaders (This includes Governor Steve Bullock, House Minority Leader Jenny Eck, and Senate Minority Leader Jon Sesso)
  • The executive board of the Montana Democratic Party
  • Partner organizations (Examples include, but are not limited to, the MEA, AFL-CIO, Young Democrats, Big Sky Democrats, and Stonewall Democrats)

There are eight candidates running for the nomination:

  • Kelly McCarthy (Legislator, Billings)
  • Amanda Curtis (Legislator, Billings)
  • Rob Quist (Musician, Flathead Valley)
  • Dan West (Former Obama administration official, Missoula)
  • John Meyer (Environmental attorney, Bozeman)
  • Gary Stein (Teacher, Missoula)
  • Link Neimark (Business owner, Whitefish)
  • Tom Weida (Traveling salesman, Helena)

The candidates have to be physically present at the nominating convention, they cannot send a proxy or representative on their behalf. Each candidate has to be nominated by one of the voting delegates. There is a short comment period for candidates and delegates to make their arguments on who the delegates should vote for, followed by the voting.

There will be an estimated 180-200 votes at the convention. A candidate needs 50 percent of the votes plus one to win.  If none of the candidates are able to get a majority, delegates vote on another ballot. This process continues until a winner with a majority of the vote prevails. The winner will square off against the Montana Republican Party’s nominee in a special election, which will tentatively be scheduled 85-100 days after Zinke’s resignation from the House of Representatives.

Heidi Heitkamp Endorses Pete Buttigieg for DNC Chairman

ATLANTA – Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) endorsed South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg in his race for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee. “Pete Buttigieg is the only candidate who has demonstrated he has what it takes to organize and win in places where Democrats haven’t competed for years,” Heitkamp said in a statement. “This is bigger than what happened in 2016 and what will happen in 2018. This is about the future of our party. Pete Buttigieg offers us the best opportunity to be put on a path to victory for decades to come. I proudly endorse Pete Buttigieg and a fresh start for the Democratic Party.”

Heitkamp’s endorsement offers Buttigieg one final big-name endorsement – though she is not a voting DNC member – less than 24 hours before Democrats elect their next chairman. Though the two front-runners in the race continue to be Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) and former Secretary of Labor Tom Perez, Buttigieg has been quietly gaining momentum and endorsements – most notably from five former DNC chairs, including Governor Howard Dean – in recent weeks and has emerged as the leading candidate from the rest of the field.

While the Ellison-Perez battle is seen by many observers and journalists as a proxy war through the prism of the 2016 primaries – Ellison was a Bernie Sanders supporter and Sanders has endorsed him in this race, Perez is seen as having the support of many former cabinet officials in the Obama administration and people close to the former president, including Vice President Joe Biden. Buttigieg – who wrote an essay praising Sanders when he was still in high school and endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016 – is perceived by many as a possible alternative candidate who is not tainted by the lingering Clinton-Sanders divisions within the party. At the recent DNC forum in Baltimore less than two weeks ago, Buttigieg said, “I didn’t enjoy the 2016 primary the first time. I don’t know why we would want to relive it a second time.”

Heitkamp is considered one of the Senate Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection in 2018. Though North Dakota has a record of electing Democratic senators like Heitkamp, Byron Dorgan, and Kent Conrad in the past, Donald Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016.

Howard Dean Calls Top Senate Democrat’s Endorsement “the Kiss of Death”

ATLANTA — Former Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean took a swipe at Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer while addressing a room full of DNC members earlier today.

“I think Chuck Schumer’s endorsement is the kiss of death,” Dean said at a lunch organized by South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is running to be the next chairman of the organization.  Dean has endorsed Buttigieg.

The context for the comment was an argument that Dean – then the DNC chairman – and Schumer – then the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee – had approximately a decade ago over use of party funds. According to Dean, Schumer wanted more money from the DNC for his committee, a decision Dean opposed by investing the money in state and local parties. During Dean and Schumer’s tenures as chairs of their respective committees, Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress in 2006, and expanded their congressional majorities and won the White House in 2008.

The subtext to Dean’s comment – implicit or not – is the fact that Schumer was one of the earliest and most prominent Democrats to endorse Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) in the DNC race when it began in late 2016.  Ellison was considered one of the frontrunners in the race along with former Secretary of Labor Tom Perez for the past several weeks, but Perez has apparently seized the momentum in the final stretch of the race after unveiling a series of endorsements from voting members of the DNC in support of his candidacy over the past 48 hours.  According to Politico, Schumer sent out a letter to DNC members yesterday reaffirming his support for Ellison and defending him on Israel.

Candidates Named for Kansas Special Election

After Mike Pompeo’s resignation from Congress to take the job of CIA director, there will be a special election to fill his former seat, which represents Kansas’s 4th congressional district. The Kansas Democratic Party held a convention today in the 4th CD to pick their nominee for the race. narrowing down a field of five candidates before finally choosing civil rights attorney James Thompson after two rounds of voting

Republicans chose state treasurer Ron Estes as their candidate. The election will take place on April 11.  According to the Wichita Eagle, Democrats will try to tie Estes to President Donald Trump and Kansas governor Sam Brownback, while Republicans will try to tie Thompson to House minority leader Nancy Pelosi. According to the Cook Political Report, the 4th CD has a R +14 Partisan Voter Index. Presidnet Trump won Kansas 56-35 in the 2016 election.

Joaquin Castro Considering Run Against Ted Cruz in 2018

Congressman Joaquin Castro may be planning a Senate run for next year, according to his brother, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro:

Democrats have a difficult map in 2018, playing defense in 25 seats, compared to the GOP’s 7. In addition to that, Democrats haven’t won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, but depending on the political and economic dynamics of the country in 18 months, and the fact that Senator Ted Cruz has burned a lot of bridges even within his own party, this could be a long shot pickup opportunity for Senate Democrats in 2018.

Democrats Skipping Meeting with Trump Supreme Court Nominee Tonight

From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell: