DNC Chairman Race Home Stretch: Competing Whip Counts

ATLANTA – In the past few days, at least two news organizations have tried to do a whip count to gauge the state of the race for DNC chairman.

According to The Hill:

  • The Whip Count:
    • Keith Ellison – 105
    • Tom Perez – 57
    • The other candidates had less than a dozen votes each.
  • The Hill’s math only accounts for 162 out of 447 voting DNC members.
  • More than 50 DNC members undecided.

According to the Associated Press:

  • The Whip Count:
    • Perez – 205
    • Ellison – 153
    • Harrison – 27
    • Boynton Brown – 10
    • Buttigieg – 8
    • Greene – 0
  • AP’s math accounts for 403 out of 447 voting DNC members.
  • The magic number to win the race is 224.
  • If AP’s math is correct,
    • Neither of the two frontrunners has the race locked up.
    • Tom Perez is 19 votes shy of winning the race.
    • Jaime Harrison could play role of kingmaker and put Perez over the top with his 27 votes.
      • Even if Harrison and Perez work out some sort of deal along the lines of the one allegedly worked out between Keith Ellison and Ray Buckley, that doesn’t mean that Harrison’s 27 votes are obligated to vote for Perez.
    • Even if Keith Ellison were to win all 44 votes that are unaccounted for, he still comes up short.

Regardless of which story you read, take with a grain of salt, because alliances can shift as candidates gain momentum or drop out through the rounds.  Some promises or commitments may have been made privately, but that doesn’t mean they are binding. Because neither of the two front runners likely has a lock on 224 votes for an outright victory on the first ballot, there will likely be multiple rounds of voting.

CNN DNC Chair Debate Live Blog

Live debate in Atlanta co-hosted by CNN’s Chris Cuomo and Dana Bash:

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DNC Race Endorsement Counts, and Candidates Seeking Endorsements in Wyoming Today

The Wall Street Journal’s Reid Epstein has a good update on the state of the DNC chair race. (Keep in mind this story was written and published before Ray Buckley’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Keith Ellison). Here are some highlights from the story:

  • Despite Tom Perez’s email to DNC members saying he had secured the support of 180 members, the campaign could only provide the WSJ with the names of 34 members who had publicly endorsed him.
  • Keith Ellison’s campaign provided the WSJ with a list of 56 DNC members who have publicly endorsed him.
  • Key caveat: “Neither campaign agreed to reveal their list of private commitments.”
  • DNC member endorsement counts for other candidates:
    • Sally Boynton Brown: 5
    • Ray Buckley: 8
    • Pete Buttigieg: 6
    • Jehmu Greene: 0
    • Jaime Harrison: 9
  • Sally Boynton Brown, as well as representatives from the Ellison and Perez campaigns, are in Laramie, Wyoming today for an event organized by state Democrats. None of Wyoming’s four DNC members has made a public endorsement in the race.

UPDATE: Since Buckley dropped out of the race, he is encouraging his supporters and the DNC members who endorsed him to get behind Ellison. The assumption is that they will do so, though they are free to get behind another candidate if they wish. 

Ray Buckley Drops Out of DNC Chair Race, Endorses Keith Ellison

New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley announced this morning he is getting out of the race and getting behind Keith Ellison.  Here’s the statement:

From the moment I stepped into this race, I made it clear that the top two priorities of the next DNC Chair must be to strengthen state parties and reform the DNC,” said Ray Buckley. “Now, many candidates have spoken about these issues, but Keith’s commitment to the states and a transparent and accountable DNC has stood out. He knows elections are not won and lost in the beltway, but on the ground across the country. His plan, in fact, shared many of the same ideas and principles as my own. We both believe in investing in all 50 states, Democrats Abroad, and the territories, providing support and resources to help state parties succeed, and organizing in every county across this great country. And here’s the thing, we both have a track record of winning elections. While it was a tremendous honor to run for DNC Chair over the past few months, I am proud to throw my support behind Keith so we can ensure that the next Chair of the DNC is dedicated to investing in and strengthening state parties and ensuring that the DNC is an accountable organization. As I’ve talked to the DNC membership, it’s clear Keith has widespread support, and I know as our next DNC Chair Keith will successfully unite and grow our party.”

This is a big get for Ellison for two reasons: first, it removes a potential rival from the race. Second, in his capacity as chairman of the NHDP, Buckley has a vote in picking the next chairman at the party’s winter meeting in Atlanta at the end of the month.

You can read my interview from a few weeks ago with Ray Buckley here.

 

DNC Race Home Stretch

The four regional forums are done, and in eight days, the 447 voting members of the Democratic National Committee will pick the party’s next chairman (or woman) and senior leaders.

The big drama in the past few days: Tom Perez sent out an email to DNC members saying he had locked up 180 votes – a claim which can’t be independently verified – out of the 224 votes necessary to win the chairmanship. This prompted Keith Ellison to send out his own email to DNC members accusing Ellison – without naming him – of misleading or misrepresenting his lead in the state of the race.  Young Turks reporter Nomiki Konst created a bit of a stir when she tweeted a series of photos showing Perez and Ellison having dinner together at a Dupont Circle restaurant after a candidates’ forum organized by the Woman’s National Democratic Club. Perez and Ellison subsequently tweeted that they were just friends, and in a statement pledged cooperation regardless of who won the chairmanship at the election later this month.

NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald reported that Ellison had offered New Hampshire Democratic Party chairman Ray Buckley “a role leading DNC operations” in exchange for his endorsement in the race. Asked to comment on this report, a source close to Buckley responded, “The Chairman is still in the race and is keeping all options on the table right now. He wants to make sure whatever he does is in the party’s best interests.”

Beyond that, here is the list of all the endorsements that have been announced by the various candidates over the past several days:

Sally Boynton Brown:

Pete Buttigieg:

Keith Ellison:

Jaime Harrison:

Tom Perez:

Candidates Named for Kansas Special Election

After Mike Pompeo’s resignation from Congress to take the job of CIA director, there will be a special election to fill his former seat, which represents Kansas’s 4th congressional district. The Kansas Democratic Party held a convention today in the 4th CD to pick their nominee for the race. narrowing down a field of five candidates before finally choosing civil rights attorney James Thompson after two rounds of voting

Republicans chose state treasurer Ron Estes as their candidate. The election will take place on April 11.  According to the Wichita Eagle, Democrats will try to tie Estes to President Donald Trump and Kansas governor Sam Brownback, while Republicans will try to tie Thompson to House minority leader Nancy Pelosi. According to the Cook Political Report, the 4th CD has a R +14 Partisan Voter Index. Presidnet Trump won Kansas 56-35 in the 2016 election.

DNC Forum Baltimore Liveblog

Moderated by April Ryan, Urban Radio Networks

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Joaquin Castro Considering Run Against Ted Cruz in 2018

Congressman Joaquin Castro may be planning a Senate run for next year, according to his brother, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro:

Democrats have a difficult map in 2018, playing defense in 25 seats, compared to the GOP’s 7. In addition to that, Democrats haven’t won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, but depending on the political and economic dynamics of the country in 18 months, and the fact that Senator Ted Cruz has burned a lot of bridges even within his own party, this could be a long shot pickup opportunity for Senate Democrats in 2018.

Former Maryland Governor Endorses Buttigieg for DNC Chair

Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland and Democratic presidential candidate, endorsed South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg to be the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee. O’Malley told Politico:

“I’ve known Pete Buttigieg for many years, he has been a terrific mayor. He’s one of those new, up-and-coming leaders in our country and in our party that’s really bringing forward a new and better way of governing,” O’Malley — who himself briefly considered a run for the chairmanship before bowing out in November — told POLITICO. “He speaks with a clarity that our party really, really needs right now. He has been successful in a so-called red state, he brings to the public service of being mayor the background of having served in our armed forces.”

“He is of a new generation of leadership. Our party sometimes talks about bringing forward a new generation of leadership, well, hey man, there’s never been a better time,” added O’Malley, referring to the 35-year-old veteran of the war in Afghanistan.

Some context and back story here:

  • O’Malley briefly considered running for DNC chairman himself very early on but ultimately chose not to get in the race.
  • Buttigieg rival Tom Perez – a Maryland native – served as O’Malley’s secretary of labor in 2007.  That O’Malley is endorsing Buttigieg and not Perez is seen as a snub in some quarters.
  • O’Malley is endorsing Buttigieg days before the fourth and final DNC regional forum, scheduled to take place in Baltimore – the city where O’Malley was once mayor – this Saturday.

Buttigieg – a Navy reservist and veteran of Afghanistan – also received the endorsement of VoteVets, a progressive veterans’ group:

“Progressives need fresh and bold new leadership, like Mayor Pete, to lead the way to regaining the majority in Congress, and the White House,” said Jon Soltz, Iraq War Veteran and Chairman of VoteVets.  “Veterans like Pete know how to communicate to so many Americans why it is progressive policies that will keep America safe, and prosperous.  Being from the heartland, Pete also knows how to reconnect with huge swaths of the country that Democrats, frankly, have ignored.  He has a record of success in Indiana doing just that – not just on a rhetorical level, but on a technical and strategic level, as a great organizer.  That’s why he’s exactly the right person to lead the progressive movement, as chair.”

Tom Perez Rolls Out Big Endorsements as DNC Chair Race Enters Final Stretch

Tom Perez announced he had been endorsed by David Pepper and Marcel Groen, the chairmen of the Ohio and Pennsylvania Democratic Party.

Pepper:

“To win states like Ohio, Democrats must have a leader who can rebuild our party, reach out to our big tent and refocus our message on creating real economic opportunity for Americans in rural counties, small cities and our urban centers,” Pepper said. “Tom Perez can do just that. Tom combines the unique experience of having successfully led large, complex organizations, with a strong progressive record of accomplishment on issue after issue. He understands the need for robust state parties to play the central role in an effective progressive infrastructure and the importance of building a true partnership between the national party and state parties in order to win elections at all levels.”

Groen:

“While we are blessed with many impressive candidates for DNC chair, one stands out. Tom Perez has dedicated his life to fighting for the little guy, from his efforts to stop discriminatory voter ID laws at the Justice Department to requiring employers to disclose expenditures that pressure employees not to unionize,” Groen said in a statement. “After Donald Trump won Pennsylvania this past election, it is now more important than ever that we have a chair with this sort of record of results who can speak to people in Philadelphia as well as Johnstown and build a DNC for every Democrat.”

The significance of these endorsements is twofold: the real impact is that as state party chairs, both of them are voting members of the DNC and will elect the next chairman at the party’s winter meeting in Atlanta at the end of February. The symbolic impact is that these are two of the crucial Rust Belt states that cost Hillary Clinton the election.

Beyond them, Perez also rolled out endorsements from several former Department of Justice officials and U.S. attorneys (remember, federal law prohibits officials currently in the Department of Justice from making political endorsements), the most high-profile being his former boss, Attorney General Eric Holder:

“I truly have great respect for all of the candidates running for DNC chair, but as we wage an epic battle for the heart and soul of our nation, I strongly believe that Tom Perez is the progressive fighter and change agent we need to lead the Democratic party and to rebuild the party infrastructure in the states. I’m confident Tom is up to the tasks that will confront the next DNC Chair.  I endorse him with great enthusiasm.”

This follows up on the news of Keith Ellison receiving the endorsement of John Burton, the chairman of the California Democratic Party. All candidates for DNC chairman are rolling out endorsements in the lead up to the fourth and final regional DNC forum, scheduled to take place in Baltimore on Saturday.