Category: Congress

Alabama House Member Considering Run Against Senator Doug Jones in 2020

Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) told The Hill he was considering a run against Democratic Senator Doug Jones, who is up for re-election in 2020. He rated his chances of getting in the race as “greater than 50 percent.”

Jones won what was considered a safe Republican seat in a special election last December, defeating former Chief Justice Roy Moore who was politically weakened after a series of allegations that he made advances on teenage girls as a 30-year-old man.  He is currently serving the remainder of former senator Jeff Sessions’ six-year term, which expires in 2020. He would likely be one of the most endangered Senate Democrats in that cycle.

Biden Endorses Kyrsten Sinema

Former vice president Joe Biden has endorsed Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate running for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat. In an email sent out from Sinema’s Senate campaign, Biden said:

“I am proud to support my friend Kyrsten Sinema in her campaign for Senate. Kyrsten understands the challenges and opportunities that Arizona families face every day and will make a great Senator.

I’ve seen first-hand how Kyrsten gets things done for Arizona. She was indispensable to our work to strengthen the landmark Violence Against Women Act and brought a unique perspective, having worked in communities and schools. Together with Kyrsten, we expanded protections against domestic abuse and sexual assault.

Kyrsten also cares deeply for the brave men and women who wear our nation’s uniform. From standing up for our active duty service members to her work to ensure all veterans get the care they deserve, Kyrsten is tenacious in delivering results.

Kyrsten is as hard-working and principled as they come. She has the rare ability to cut through the political games and work across the aisle to get things done. These qualities can be tough to find today, but are as important as ever to solve our nation’s toughest challenges. We need more people like Kyrsten in the U.S. Senate.”

Arizona’s primary election is scheduled for August 28. Both Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report project the Arizona Senate race as a tossup.

Both Candidates in Nevada Senate Race Fundraising Off Kennedy Retirement

That didn’t take long.

Rosen Kennedy email June 27 2018.jpeg

BREAKING: Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy Announces His Retirement

Hugely consequential development four months out from Election Day.

UPDATE: Statement from Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez

“If there was ever any question whether the November elections would be the most important of our lifetime, Justice Kennedy’s retirement should remove all doubt. Democrats and Republicans should reject any nominee who won’t uphold our constitution and our basic human rights, and who would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. We must make our voices heard at the ballot box for the millions of American families who are counting on us.

“So if you believe immigrant families belong together, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe in a woman’s right to choose and a worker’s right to bargain, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe health care is a right for all, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe a Muslim ban is fundamentally un-American, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe in full equality for LGBTQ people in all areas of our society, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe Dreamers should be able to stay and contribute to the only country they call home, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe climate change is an urgent threat to our economy, our environment, and our children’s future, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe our leaders should put people before corporations, vote for Democrats in November.

“If you believe we should make ​it easier for people to vote, not harder, vote for Democrats in November.

“Elections have consequences. The last Supreme Court vacancy was brazenly stolen by shameless Republican leaders with no respect for American democracy. We cannot let that happen again. In November, you won’t just be deciding the next Congress, you will be deciding the direction America goes in for the next half-century. If the last year and a half has made you angry, organize for Democrats, vote for Democrats, and elect Democrats up and down the ballot – from the school board to the Senate.”

UPDATE II: He’s not a flaming ideologue or alarmist, but CNN’s Jeffrey Toobin really puts the enormity of the stakes of this upcoming Supreme Court fight into perspective:

 

McConnell-Aligned Super PAC Makes $25 Million Ad Buy for the Fall

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC run by political allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have made an initial TV advertising reservation for the fall worth $25 million, according to the Washington Examiner.

The ads will run in Missouri ($10.5 million), Nevada ($11.2 million) and North Dakota ($2.3 million).  Missouri and North Dakota represent pickup opportunities for Senate Republicans to add to their slim 51-49 majority. Republicans are playing defense in Nevada, where incumbent Dean Heller is seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans. The organization is holding off on buying more advertising time until later to keep its strategy for November under wraps.

In contrast, the organization’s Democratic counterpart Senate Majority PAC has announced a “first wave” of buys worth $80 million targeting Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee and West Virginia. With the exceptions of Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee, Senate Democrats are playing defense in the other states.

The report also notes, “The Republican super PAC is already active in West Virginia and Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is in trouble against Republican businessman and former state legislator Mike Braun. The Democratic super PAC has been spending on advertising in Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott is challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson; in Montana, where state Auditor Matt Rosendale is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester; and in Indiana and North Dakota.”

Sinema Leads in Arizona Senate Race Polls

Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leads in hypothetical matchups for Arizona’s Senate race against all three potential Republican opponents, according to two new polls which illustrate the challenge that state and national Republicans will have in holding this Senate seat in the November general election.

According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, Sinema leads former State Sen. Kelli Ward 43-35, Rep. Martha McSally 41-34, and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio 45-28.  The same poll gives President Donald Trump a 47-53 approval rating

A second poll by Emerson College has Sinema leading Ward 43-26, McSally 40-32, and Arpaio 54-30. Sinema has a commanding 51 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, with no other candidate getting more than 8 percent. Republican primary voters are more divided, with McSally leading with 32 percent, Ward in second with 19 percent, Arpaio close behind with 18 percent, and 23 percent of voters still undecided.

The Emerson poll also has incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey with a 31 percent approval rating, lower than President Trump’s 43 percent approval rating in the state.  Ducey leads his opponent, former Secretary of State Ken Bennett 44-22 in the Republican gubernatorial primary, with 35 percent of voters undecided. Former college professor David Garcia leads among Democratic primary voters, with 30 percent of the vote. State Sen. Steve Farley is in second place with 13 percent, and Kelly Fryer in third with 9 percent of the vote.  However, 48 percent of voters are undecided.

Defending the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Flake is one of Republicans’ biggest challenges in an otherwise mostly favorable 2018 Senate cycle. According to the Prew Research Center, Arizona has the sixth highest Hispanic population in the country – roughly 2.1 million Hispanics who account for 31 percent of the state population, and approximately 3.7 percent of all Hispanics in the United States. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton overperformed in Arizona in 2016 compared to previous Democratic presidential candidates, losing the state by only 3.5 percent of the vote. State Democrats may be even more energized to turn out and vote because of President Trump’s decision to pardon Sheriff Arpaio in August of 2017. There has been no polling of Arizona voters about the Trump administration’s family separation policy, but a recent Battleground Tracker poll by CBS News and YouGov found that the policy only has 27 percent support.

The primary election is scheduled for August 28. Both Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report project the Arizona Senate race as a tossup.

UPDATE: NBC News released the results of its Arizona Senate race poll this afternoon. Sinema leads all three Republican candidates by double digits: Ward 48-38, McSally 49-38, Arpaio 57-32.

Jason Kander Running for Mayor of Kansas City in 2019

Jason Kander, the rising Democratic star who nearly defeated incumbent Republican senator Roy Blunt in the 2016 election, will run for mayor of Kansas City, Missouri, according to the Kansas City Star. The newspaper also reports that Kander hasn’t formally made an announcement, but he could launch his campaign as early as next week.

In the 18 months since the 2016 election, Kander has maintained his national profile through speeches, appearances in early presidential states of Iowa and New Hampshire, founding the voting rights nonprofit organization Let America Vote, and as host of the Majority 54 podcast on Crooked Media.

Kander’s decision to run for mayor next year effectively takes him out of consideration for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.  There are currently eight candidates who have declared for the election, five of which current members of the city council. The primary is scheduled for April of 2019.

Democrats Ahead in New West Virginia Poll, as Blankenship Tries to Get on the Ballot

Democratic senator Joe Manchin is ahead of Republican attorney general Patrick Morrisey by 9 points in the West Virginia Senate race, according to a new poll by Monmouth University.  This poll also shows former mining executive Don Blankenship receiving four percent of the vote as a third party candidate.  In a head-to-head matchup, Manchin still leads Morrisey 49-42.  In the race for the Third Congressional District, Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda is slightly ahead of Republican State Representative Carol Miller 43-41. The fact that this race is close in a district that Donald Trump won by 50 points should alarm Republicans, even though the underlying political demographics favor Democrats.

A possible wildcard to keep an eye on in the Senate race is Don Blankenship, who lost the Republican primary and is trying to run on the Constitution Party ticket or as a write-in candidate. However, in order to get on the ballot he would have to go to court to challenge the state’s “sore loser” election law which prevents a losing primary candidate from running in the general election. If Blankenship qualifies for the ballot and the spread between Manchin and Morrisey tightens, Blankenship could potentially play a spoiler role on Election Day.

Manchin and Ojeda are leading in this poll despite President Donald Trump’s 67 percent approval rating in the state, one of his highest of anywhere in the country. Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report both project the Senate race as a tossup, and the Third Congressional District race as Leans Republican.

Reading the 2020 Tea Leaves

A look at what prospective Democratic presidential candidates are up to:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden will travel to Ohio at the end of June for fundraising events in Cincinatti for Richard Cordray, the Democratic candidate in the Ohio governor’s race; and another event in Cleveland for Democratic senator Sherrod Brown.
  • Biden also endorsed Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams in her campaign to become the first Democratic governor of Georgia in 15 years, and the first African American woman to ever be elected governor. Abrams has also been endorsed by other 2020 contenders Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.
  • Biden also endorsed Jena Griswold, the Democratic nominee running for Colorado Secretary of State.
  • Governor Jay Inslee traveled to Iowa in his capacity as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, where he joined the Iowa Democratic ticket Fred Hubbell and Rita Hart at a campaign event. He recorded an interview with Iowa Public Television in which he praised Hubbell as “the perfect candidate.” He will also be the featured speaker at the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Celebration in Des Moines on Saturday night.  He will also be meeting with Democratic activists in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.
  • Senator Jeff Merkley did not rule out a possible presidential run during an interview with The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser: “I’m exploring the possibility.”
  • Senator Cory Booker was the headliner at the Blue Commonwealth Gala in Richmond, Virginia, an annual event organized by the Democratic Party of Virginia. In addition to Booker, all Virginia Democratic statewide elected officials and former governor Terry McAuliffe – another possible 2020 contender – spoke at the event.
  • Senator Kamala Harris sent out a fundraising email on behalf of Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, according to Kansas City Star reporter Lindsay Wise. Harris also praised McCaskill during her keynote address before the St. Louis County NAACP, which both senators attended. McCaskill is considered one of the most endangered Democratic senators of the current election cycle.

Former NYC Mayor Pledges $80 Million to Help Democrats Win the House of Representatives

Michael Bloomberg is pledging $80 million to flip control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats, according to the New York Times, attributing the news to the former mayor’s advisers. The effort will be overseen by Howard Wolfson, a veteran operative of New York Democratic politics who is also a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In an statement, Bloomberg wrote:

Republicans in Congress have had almost two years to prove they could govern responsibly. They failed. As we approach the 2018 midterms, it’s critical that we elect people who will lead in ways that this Congress won’t — both by seeking to legislate in a bipartisan way, and by upholding the checks and balances that the Founding Fathers set up to safeguard ethics, prevent the abuse of power, and preserve the rule of law.

And so this fall, I’m going to support Democrats in their efforts to win control of the House.

Bloomberg, a former Republican, has previously supported candidates from both parties, noting that he spent a combined $20 million in the 2016 cycle to support Pat Toomey and Maggie Hassan Senate campaigns on the issue of gun control. The Times also notes that he may stay out of House races in rural, conservative districts where his stance on gun control could be a liability.

One at-risk Republican incumbent, Rep. John Culberson who represents the suburbs west of Houston, is already sending out emails with the Bloomberg news to energize his voters: