CNN projects the Missouri Attorney General will face off against incumbent Democratic senator Claire McCaskill in what will probably be one of the most competitive Senate races of the cycle.
August 7 Primary and Special Election Results
All times are PST.
4:58 p.m. The last of the early vote counts from the Ohio 12th Congressional District are in, and Democrat Danny O’Connor is up by a landslide. He can’t pop the champagne yet, because Election Day ballots are still being counted.
5:00 p.m. Polls close in Kansas and Missouri. Ballot counting begins.
5:06 p.m. Absentee vote numbers from Ohio:
5:13 p.m. Update from Columbus Dispatch public affairs editor Darrel Rowland:
5:19 p.m. From Ohio governor John Kasich’s political strategist
5:35 p.m. Interesting observation on the urban/rural political divide pointed out by respected political journalist/pundit Ron Brownstein:
5:48 p.m. The Cook Political Report announces its projections for both primaries in the Michigan governor’s race. No call from the AP or any other news organizations yet.
5:56 p.m. Finished numbers are in from Marion County, Ohio:
5:58 p.m. Reaction to the Marion County numbers from Danny O’Connor’s pollster:
6:00 p.m. 32 percent of precincts reporting in Ohio’s 12th congressional district. Per MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki, the question of the night in this race will be if Troy Balderson can chip away at Danny O’Connor’s lead from early voting and come out ahead on the basis of Election Day votes?
6:05 p.m. Outside group American Bridge just dropped its first general election ad against Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Schuette
6:07 p.m. Updated take on the Ohio numbers from The Economist’s G. Elliott Morris:
6:10 p.m. Half of the votes are in in Ohio, Balderson keeps chipping away at O’Connor’s lead.
6:14 p.m. 59 percent of the Ohio 12th district vote in and Balderson has cut O’Connor’s lead down to almost 2,400 votes, according to the Ohio Secretary of State.
6:17 p.m. All of the votes from Morrow County, Ohio are in.
6:19 p.m. Balderson takes the lead for the first time with 66 percent of the vote in.
6:26 p.m. In the Kansas GOP gubernatorial primary, with 310 out of 3539 precincts reporting, Jeff Colyer has a 41-38 lead over Kris Kobach, but the night is still young.
6:29 p.m. With 75 percent of precincts reporting in Ohio, O’Connor has taken a razor-thin 593-vote lead.
6:38 p.m. Quick take from Columbus Dispatch political reporter Jim Siegel:
6:39 p.m. With 84 percent of precincts reporting, O’Connor has expanded his lead to 1,338 votes. According to the Secretary of State’s office, 90 precincts are still outstanding.
6:46 p.m. 84 percent of precincts reporting and O’Connor’s lead has shrunk to 155 votes.
7:00 p.m. 90 percent of precincts reporting and O’Connor has retaken the lead by 201 votes. 55 precincts are still outstanding.
7:17 p.m. 98 percent of precincts reporting and Balderson has taken a 1,685 vote lead. Barring any dramatic surprises in the final two precincts and provisional ballots, it looks like Balderson has it in the bag. Keep in mind, this battle is not over. Balderson and O’Connor will face off AGAIN in the November general election for a full two-year term.
7:25 p.m. Per CNN, GOP outside groups outspent their Democratic counterparts in this race by a 5:1 margin.
7:42 p.m. CNN still lists the Ohio 12th district race as too close to call. Per Danny O’Connor’s pollster, it looks like they’re going to a recount (i.e. call the lawyers):
7:46 p.m. In Missouri, Proposition A (Right to Work) is losing badly, 62-37.
8:01 p.m. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Proposition A is losing 63-37 with 50 percent of precincts reporting. Votes are still being counted, but the Missouri Democratic Party has already declared victory.
McConnell-Aligned Super PAC Makes $25 Million Ad Buy for the Fall
The Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC run by political allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have made an initial TV advertising reservation for the fall worth $25 million, according to the Washington Examiner.
The ads will run in Missouri ($10.5 million), Nevada ($11.2 million) and North Dakota ($2.3 million). Missouri and North Dakota represent pickup opportunities for Senate Republicans to add to their slim 51-49 majority. Republicans are playing defense in Nevada, where incumbent Dean Heller is seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans. The organization is holding off on buying more advertising time until later to keep its strategy for November under wraps.
In contrast, the organization’s Democratic counterpart Senate Majority PAC has announced a “first wave” of buys worth $80 million targeting Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee and West Virginia. With the exceptions of Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee, Senate Democrats are playing defense in the other states.
The report also notes, “The Republican super PAC is already active in West Virginia and Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is in trouble against Republican businessman and former state legislator Mike Braun. The Democratic super PAC has been spending on advertising in Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott is challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson; in Montana, where state Auditor Matt Rosendale is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester; and in Indiana and North Dakota.”
Jason Kander Running for Mayor of Kansas City in 2019
Jason Kander, the rising Democratic star who nearly defeated incumbent Republican senator Roy Blunt in the 2016 election, will run for mayor of Kansas City, Missouri, according to the Kansas City Star. The newspaper also reports that Kander hasn’t formally made an announcement, but he could launch his campaign as early as next week.
In the 18 months since the 2016 election, Kander has maintained his national profile through speeches, appearances in early presidential states of Iowa and New Hampshire, founding the voting rights nonprofit organization Let America Vote, and as host of the Majority 54 podcast on Crooked Media.
Kander’s decision to run for mayor next year effectively takes him out of consideration for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. There are currently eight candidates who have declared for the election, five of which current members of the city council. The primary is scheduled for April of 2019.
Reading the 2020 Tea Leaves
A look at what prospective Democratic presidential candidates are up to:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden will travel to Ohio at the end of June for fundraising events in Cincinatti for Richard Cordray, the Democratic candidate in the Ohio governor’s race; and another event in Cleveland for Democratic senator Sherrod Brown.
- Biden also endorsed Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams in her campaign to become the first Democratic governor of Georgia in 15 years, and the first African American woman to ever be elected governor. Abrams has also been endorsed by other 2020 contenders Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.
- Biden also endorsed Jena Griswold, the Democratic nominee running for Colorado Secretary of State.
- Governor Jay Inslee traveled to Iowa in his capacity as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, where he joined the Iowa Democratic ticket Fred Hubbell and Rita Hart at a campaign event. He recorded an interview with Iowa Public Television in which he praised Hubbell as “the perfect candidate.” He will also be the featured speaker at the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Celebration in Des Moines on Saturday night. He will also be meeting with Democratic activists in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.
- Senator Jeff Merkley did not rule out a possible presidential run during an interview with The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser: “I’m exploring the possibility.”
- Senator Cory Booker was the headliner at the Blue Commonwealth Gala in Richmond, Virginia, an annual event organized by the Democratic Party of Virginia. In addition to Booker, all Virginia Democratic statewide elected officials and former governor Terry McAuliffe – another possible 2020 contender – spoke at the event.
- Senator Kamala Harris sent out a fundraising email on behalf of Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, according to Kansas City Star reporter Lindsay Wise. Harris also praised McCaskill during her keynote address before the St. Louis County NAACP, which both senators attended. McCaskill is considered one of the most endangered Democratic senators of the current election cycle.