Tag: 2018 Election

Sinema Leads in Arizona Senate Race Polls

Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leads in hypothetical matchups for Arizona’s Senate race against all three potential Republican opponents, according to two new polls which illustrate the challenge that state and national Republicans will have in holding this Senate seat in the November general election.

According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, Sinema leads former State Sen. Kelli Ward 43-35, Rep. Martha McSally 41-34, and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio 45-28.  The same poll gives President Donald Trump a 47-53 approval rating

A second poll by Emerson College has Sinema leading Ward 43-26, McSally 40-32, and Arpaio 54-30. Sinema has a commanding 51 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, with no other candidate getting more than 8 percent. Republican primary voters are more divided, with McSally leading with 32 percent, Ward in second with 19 percent, Arpaio close behind with 18 percent, and 23 percent of voters still undecided.

The Emerson poll also has incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey with a 31 percent approval rating, lower than President Trump’s 43 percent approval rating in the state.  Ducey leads his opponent, former Secretary of State Ken Bennett 44-22 in the Republican gubernatorial primary, with 35 percent of voters undecided. Former college professor David Garcia leads among Democratic primary voters, with 30 percent of the vote. State Sen. Steve Farley is in second place with 13 percent, and Kelly Fryer in third with 9 percent of the vote.  However, 48 percent of voters are undecided.

Defending the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Flake is one of Republicans’ biggest challenges in an otherwise mostly favorable 2018 Senate cycle. According to the Prew Research Center, Arizona has the sixth highest Hispanic population in the country – roughly 2.1 million Hispanics who account for 31 percent of the state population, and approximately 3.7 percent of all Hispanics in the United States. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton overperformed in Arizona in 2016 compared to previous Democratic presidential candidates, losing the state by only 3.5 percent of the vote. State Democrats may be even more energized to turn out and vote because of President Trump’s decision to pardon Sheriff Arpaio in August of 2017. There has been no polling of Arizona voters about the Trump administration’s family separation policy, but a recent Battleground Tracker poll by CBS News and YouGov found that the policy only has 27 percent support.

The primary election is scheduled for August 28. Both Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report project the Arizona Senate race as a tossup.

UPDATE: NBC News released the results of its Arizona Senate race poll this afternoon. Sinema leads all three Republican candidates by double digits: Ward 48-38, McSally 49-38, Arpaio 57-32.

The Next Potential Democratic Litmus Test: Abolishing ICE

In light of the national uproar over President Donald Trump’s family separation policy, at least two incumbent House Democrats (Rep. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon and Rep.  Jim McGovern of Massachusetts) a gubernatorial candidate (Cynthia Nixon in New York) and one possible presidential contender (Kamala Harris in California) has floated the idea of reforming, de-funding or shutting down Immigrations and Customs Enforcement. Even the libertarian publication Reason has gotten behind this idea. The most serious move on this issue so far has come from Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.), who announced this morning that he would be introducing legislation in the House to abolish ICE.

The agency, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, has come under new scrutiny for its role and actions in implementing President Trump’s policy, as have its architects.  Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen and senior White House adviser Stephen Miller were heckled by protesters while eating out in Washington DC restaurants last week.

The Republican National Committee hasn’t made much of an issue out of it yet beyond a blog post, although expect that to change if President Trump enters the fray, particularly in close House and Senate races which could make or break the Republican majorities for next year.

Democrats Ahead in New West Virginia Poll, as Blankenship Tries to Get on the Ballot

Democratic senator Joe Manchin is ahead of Republican attorney general Patrick Morrisey by 9 points in the West Virginia Senate race, according to a new poll by Monmouth University.  This poll also shows former mining executive Don Blankenship receiving four percent of the vote as a third party candidate.  In a head-to-head matchup, Manchin still leads Morrisey 49-42.  In the race for the Third Congressional District, Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda is slightly ahead of Republican State Representative Carol Miller 43-41. The fact that this race is close in a district that Donald Trump won by 50 points should alarm Republicans, even though the underlying political demographics favor Democrats.

A possible wildcard to keep an eye on in the Senate race is Don Blankenship, who lost the Republican primary and is trying to run on the Constitution Party ticket or as a write-in candidate. However, in order to get on the ballot he would have to go to court to challenge the state’s “sore loser” election law which prevents a losing primary candidate from running in the general election. If Blankenship qualifies for the ballot and the spread between Manchin and Morrisey tightens, Blankenship could potentially play a spoiler role on Election Day.

Manchin and Ojeda are leading in this poll despite President Donald Trump’s 67 percent approval rating in the state, one of his highest of anywhere in the country. Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report both project the Senate race as a tossup, and the Third Congressional District race as Leans Republican.

Reading the 2020 Tea Leaves

A look at what prospective Democratic presidential candidates are up to:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden will travel to Ohio at the end of June for fundraising events in Cincinatti for Richard Cordray, the Democratic candidate in the Ohio governor’s race; and another event in Cleveland for Democratic senator Sherrod Brown.
  • Biden also endorsed Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams in her campaign to become the first Democratic governor of Georgia in 15 years, and the first African American woman to ever be elected governor. Abrams has also been endorsed by other 2020 contenders Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.
  • Biden also endorsed Jena Griswold, the Democratic nominee running for Colorado Secretary of State.
  • Governor Jay Inslee traveled to Iowa in his capacity as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, where he joined the Iowa Democratic ticket Fred Hubbell and Rita Hart at a campaign event. He recorded an interview with Iowa Public Television in which he praised Hubbell as “the perfect candidate.” He will also be the featured speaker at the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Celebration in Des Moines on Saturday night.  He will also be meeting with Democratic activists in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.
  • Senator Jeff Merkley did not rule out a possible presidential run during an interview with The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser: “I’m exploring the possibility.”
  • Senator Cory Booker was the headliner at the Blue Commonwealth Gala in Richmond, Virginia, an annual event organized by the Democratic Party of Virginia. In addition to Booker, all Virginia Democratic statewide elected officials and former governor Terry McAuliffe – another possible 2020 contender – spoke at the event.
  • Senator Kamala Harris sent out a fundraising email on behalf of Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, according to Kansas City Star reporter Lindsay Wise. Harris also praised McCaskill during her keynote address before the St. Louis County NAACP, which both senators attended. McCaskill is considered one of the most endangered Democratic senators of the current election cycle.

Former NYC Mayor Pledges $80 Million to Help Democrats Win the House of Representatives

Michael Bloomberg is pledging $80 million to flip control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats, according to the New York Times, attributing the news to the former mayor’s advisers. The effort will be overseen by Howard Wolfson, a veteran operative of New York Democratic politics who is also a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In an statement, Bloomberg wrote:

Republicans in Congress have had almost two years to prove they could govern responsibly. They failed. As we approach the 2018 midterms, it’s critical that we elect people who will lead in ways that this Congress won’t — both by seeking to legislate in a bipartisan way, and by upholding the checks and balances that the Founding Fathers set up to safeguard ethics, prevent the abuse of power, and preserve the rule of law.

And so this fall, I’m going to support Democrats in their efforts to win control of the House.

Bloomberg, a former Republican, has previously supported candidates from both parties, noting that he spent a combined $20 million in the 2016 cycle to support Pat Toomey and Maggie Hassan Senate campaigns on the issue of gun control. The Times also notes that he may stay out of House races in rural, conservative districts where his stance on gun control could be a liability.

One at-risk Republican incumbent, Rep. John Culberson who represents the suburbs west of Houston, is already sending out emails with the Bloomberg news to energize his voters:

Dust Settles in Maine Democratic Primary, Mills and Golden Advance to General Election

Nearly one week after the state’s primary and the first election using the new ranked-choice voting system, Maine Democrats nominated Attorney General Janet Mills as their candidate for governor and state representative Jared Golden as their candidate for the Second Congressional District.

The Maine governor’s race is projected as “Leans Democratic” by Larry Sabato and “Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report. The Second Congressional District is projected as “Leans Republican” by both.

Democrats Ahead By Double Digits in Pennsylvania Poll

Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf and incumbent Senator Bob Casey are far ahead of their Republican challengers, according to a newly released poll of Pennsylvania voters from Franklin & Marshall College.  Casey, who is running for his third term in the U.S. Senate, leads Republican candidate Lou Bareltta 44-27, with 23 percent of voters still undecided.  Wolf, who is running for reelection as governor of the Keystone State, leads Republican State Sen. Scott Wagner 48-29, with 23 percent of voters still undecided.

The same poll gives President Donald Trump a 35 percent approval rating, compared to 52 percent who say he is doing a poor job. The poll is problematic for Republicans on tax cuts and health care, two of the biggest issues in this election cycle. Only 33 percent of voters said they had seen an increase in household income because of the tax cuts signed into law last year. Only 41 percent of voters said the Trump administration had made “significant changes” to the Affordable Care Act. More ominously, 52 percent of voters said that changes to the Affordable Care Act would make the health care system worse for their family.

Pennsylvania had been considered a potential pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans because of Donald Trump’s upset victory in the state in 2016. However, this poll, as well as the redrawn congressional map by the State Supreme Court, and Conor Lamb’s upset victory in a congressional special election last April, would seem to indicate otherwise.

Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report list both Pennsylvania races as Likely Democratic.

Cramer Up By 4 in North Dakota Senate Poll

One week after the North Dakota primary, a new Mason-Dixon poll has Republican Senate candidate Rep. Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp 48-44, with 8 percent undecided. Cramer’s lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

North Dakota is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races this fall.  It is one of ten seats in red states that Democrats must defend in a difficult Senate map this cycle. Heitkamp, who was first elected in 2012 by a margin of 3,000 votes, is running for reelection in a state Donald Trump won by 36 points in 2016 and Republican senator John Hoeven won by 61 in the same cycle.  After some tensions between Cramer and the White House over the president’s perceived friendliness toward Heitkamp, President Trump is scheduled to campaign for Rep. Cramer at an event in Fargo, N.D. on June 27.

Trump considered Heitkamp for a cabinet post during the transition and unsuccessfully attempted to persuade her to switch parties. A new Heitkamp ad released last week touted her bipartisan credentials, specifically noting that she voted with President Trump more than half of the time.

Republican Mayors Endorse South Carolina Democratic Congressional Candidate

From The Post and Courier:

Two Republicans along South Carolina’s coast won’t be backing GOP candidate Katie Arrington in her congressional run. Instead, they broke with party politics Tuesday and endorsed Democrat Joe Cunningham.

The two mayors, Tim Goodwin of Folly Beach and Jimmy Carroll of Isle of Palms, said their support boiled down to one issue that affects the state’s 1st Congressional District: Offshore drilling.

This is a case of all politics being local. The fact that Republicans in a deep red state like South Carolina are getting behind the Democrat to fill the seat that is currently held by Mark Sanford says volumes of what they think the political calculations might be in November and heading into the second half of Donald Trump’s first term. If Democrats take the House in November, assume that offshore drilling will be a non-starter for the new majority as a political or legislative issue.

Mayors are also important because they have a local political operation and turnout machine which they can mobilize for elections. If they give their voters a permission slip to vote for the Democrat to stop offshore drilling in their district, this could tighten the race in this district.

Some perspective from a former spokesman for the South Carolina House Democratic Caucus:

 

Iowa Democrat Picks State Senator Rita Hart for Running Mate

Iowa Democratic nominee Fred Hubbell announced his selection of State Sen. Rita Hart as his running mate for the gubernatorial race this fall.  More context to his decision from the Des Moines Register:

Hart, who was elected to the Senate in 2012 and again in 2014, lives in Wheatland, which is on the eastern side of the state and has a population of about 730 people. She works with her husband, Paul, on the farm his family has owned for more than 100 years there.

Hart’s rural background is an asset for Hubbell, a Des Moines businessman, who will be working to persuade voters across the state that he understands their needs and is best equipped to address them in the governor’s office. Hubbell told the Register he set out to find a lieutenant governor whose background did not mirror his own.

“I like to surround myself with people that come at questions and issues and experiences in a much different way than I do,” Hubbell, 67, told the Register. “I think that makes the discussion richer, and you’re better able to get a better decision that way. So I was looking for somebody that’s very talented and capable, but not a lot like me. And I think I found her.”

As of this writing, Larry Sabato has the race as Leans Republican. The Cook Political Report has the race as a tossup.