Young voters historically tend to be one of the least reliable demographic groups when it comes to turning out to vote regularly in elections. However, there is preliminary evidence to indicate this year’s election will be an exception to the rule. Survivors of the Parkland shooting have been vocally active in gun control and voter registration efforts during the past seven months, and their efforts might be starting to show results, according to findings from the Democratic-aligned data firm TargetSmart. Based on a review of voter registration data for 18-29 year-olds in 39 states, the organization found:
- The share of youth voter registrants nationwide has increased by 2.16 percent since February 14, 2018 – the date of the Parkland shooting.
- How that surge in youth voter registration breaks down states that have key elections this November:
- Arizona: +8.16 points
- California: +3.37 points
- Florida: +7.99 points
- Indiana: +9.87 points
- Minnesota: +4.68 points
- Montana: +3.81 points
- Nevada: +6.62 points
- New York: +10.7 points
- Ohio: +5.95 points
- Pennsylvania: +16.14 points
- Tennessee: +3.82
- Texas: +0.12
- Virginia: +10.49
- Wisconsin: +5.64
- In contrast, youth voter registration dropped in only four states and the District of Columbia.
- District of Columbia: -2.99
- Iowa: -0.3
- South Dakota: -1.4
- West Virginia: -11.52
- Wyoming: -7.1
The numbers for competitive swing states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania are particularly stunning. New York and Virginia are safely Democratic states for their statewide candidates on the ballot this year, though the real beneficiaries of that increased turnout might be downballot Democratic candidates and ballot initiatives. In a close election, the slightest margin could make all the difference.
Another data point worth keeping in mind: according to the U.S. Census, only 46.1 percent of 18- to -29-year-olds voted in the 2016 election, but this group reported a 1.1 percent increase in turnout from 2012. According to exit polls, Hillary Clinton won this age group 55-37. Why is this important? Because if TargetSmart’s 2.16 percent nationwide calculation is correct, it means that youth voter turnout increase in 2018 may double what it was two years ago.
In summary, if this data is correct and more young people are registering to vote, it means that Democrats are expanding their base of voters, which was a crucial element to Barack Obama’s political success in 2008 and 2012.
politicalwilderness.com 