Democrats lead a hypothetical matchup for the House of Representatives 51-39 according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. The findings of the poll are generally good news for the party out of power. Some of the other highlights:
- Republicans are only narrowly ahead among male voters, 46-44.
- White voters narrowly favor Democrats, 46-45.
- Democrats win all other demographic groups by double digits:
- Women favor Democrats by a 57-32 margin.
- African Americans favor Democrats 78-16.
- Latinos favor Democrats 66-23.
- Voters disapprove of both parties in Congress: Republicans 66-27, Democrats 63-30.
- Voters are split about Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. 40 percent say he should be confirmed, 41 percent say he should not. (Historical comparison: the same poll found majority support for Neil Gorsuch’s confirmation 50-35.)
- Men support Kavanaugh 50-35.
- Women oppose Kavanaugh 46-32.
- Whites support Kavanaugh 46-38.
- African Americans opposed Kavanaugh 61-15.
- Latinos split 37-38.
- A 62-27 majority of voters think Roe v. Wade will likely not be overturned in the next few years.
- A 66-23 majority of voters think overturning Roe v. Wade would be a bad thing.
- A small 48-39 majority of Republicans is the only demographic to think overturning Roe v. Wade would be a good thing.
The conclusions from this poll three months before Election Day:
- House Democrats are in a good position on the generic ballot. As long as the underlying dynamics of the race remain the same, their odds of winning control of the House of Representatives look good.
- Republicans have seemingly alienated almost every demographic that isn’t white or male. This does not bode well for their performance in ethnically diverse states like California, Virginia, and Texas.
- The White House and Senate Republicans have a lot of work to do to gin up support for Brett Kavanaugh. However, Democrats’ attempt to make the Kavanaugh nomination a referendum on abortion rights is seemingly not working, as most voters in this poll say they don’t think the landmark case will be overturned.
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