Because of the constitutional quirks of the Electoral College, Donald Trump was elected president because of approximately 80,000 voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A newly released NBC News/Marist poll of two of those three states does not bode well for the president nearly two years before he runs for re-election.
In Michigan, the president’s approval rating is 36-54.
In Minnesota, the president’s approval rating is 38-51.
In Wisconsin, the president’s approval rating is 36-52.
In contrast, only about one third of voters in all three states say President Trump deserves re-election.
The poll was done mostly after the President’s widely criticized summit and press conference with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on July 16. A majority of voters in all three states were in favor of a Democrat-controlled Congress: 45-36 in Michigan, 48-36 in Minnesota, and 47-39 in Wisconsin. A majority of voters in all three states said the message of their vote in November would be that more Democrats are needed in Congress to act as a check and balance on the president.
Besides House congressional races, all three states also have governor and U.S. Senate races as well.
Highlights of a Quinnipiac University poll released July 3:
- Trump approval/disapproval: 40-55
- Trump approval/disapproval among Republicans: 86-11
- Trump approval/disapproval among Democrats: 95-3
- Trump approval/disapproval among men: 57-40
- Trump approval/disapproval among women: 39-57
- Trump approval/disapproval among whites: 47-50
- Trump approval/disapproval among blacks: 6-92
- Trump approval/disapproval among Hispanics: 33-64
- Is Trump honest, yes/no: 38-58
- Does Trump care about average Americans, yes/no: 43-55
- Does Trump provide moral leadership, yes/no: 36-62
- Trump handling of economy, approval/disapproval: 50-45
- Trump handling of foreign policy, approval/disapproval: 43-53
- Trump handling of immigration, approval/disapproval: 39-58
- Trump handling of trade, approval/disapproval: 38-55
- Trump handling of race relations, approval/disapproval: 36-58
- Trump handling of taxes, approval/disapproval: 43-51
- Trump handling of health care, approval/disapproval: 37-55
- Trump handling of children separated from parents, approval/disapproval: 36-60
- Does administration have responsibility to reunite families, yes/no: 83-12
- Is policy of separating children a human rights violation, yes/no: 60-36
- Trump uniting/dividing the country: 36-58
- Do you think Trump is racist, yes/no: 49-47
These aren’t the complete results, but in general they do put his approval ratings on various issues in negative territory. What should keep his political advisers up at night is that these are his numbers in a time when the stock market is at a record high and there is little, if anything, that can be done to further stimulate the economy in the event of a downturn or recession. If he had plans to run during midterms on his handling of tax cuts, foreign policy, and immigration, these numbers should make him think twice, although voters give him a small majority of approval on his handling of North Korea and his meeting with Vladimir Putin. What this poll does not take into account are recent intelligence reports that North Korea shows no indication of denuclearizing.
What is also jarring is the clear public opposition to his family separation policy. Clear and decisive majorities feel the administration has committed human rights violations and that the administration has a responsibility to reunite the families that have been separated.
In essence – the president has been very fortunate that so far in his presidency, he hasn’t faced a real crisis that has tested his administration. The bad news is that if that does happen at some point, his polls have nowhere else to go but down.
Quinnipiac University released the results of a new Virginia poll. Here are the highlights:
- For the 2018 Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads hypothetical matchups against two Republican women: Laura Ingraham (56-36) and Carly Fiorina (57-36).
- President Trump has a 38-56 job approval rating in Virginia.
- Republicans approve 81-11
- Democrats disapprove 95-3
- Independents disapprove 57-37
- Whites approve 46-48
- Non-whites disapprove 76-20
- President Trump’s travel ban has a 55-42 percent disapproval rating. (Keep in mind Virginia attorney general Mark Harring has challenged it in court)
- Virginia voters think Judge Neil Gorsuch should be confirmed to the Supreme Court by a 49-31 margin.
- Virginia voters think home-schooled students should be able to play on public school sports teams, by an overwhelming 71-23 margin.
Pew Research Center published the results of a post-election/end of the year poll earlier this week. This particular statistic surprised me:
The headline: More Clinton voters regret their vote than Trump voters, though not as many as Johnson voters. I’m sure those numbers would be different if Clinton had won and Trump had lost. Beyond this, another statistic:
The entire findings of the poll are well worth reading. These nonvoter figures are fascinating and disturbing for both parties as they regroup in the wake of the election and try to figure out how they can get these nonvoters to turn out for their candidates in future elections.
Also, these figures on how partisans from both left and right view the two major parties:
All images/graphs from Pew Research Center.